Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
